Source: Undercurrent News     Written by Alicia Villegas

The global supply of fishmeal and fish oil could return to normal levels this year, since Peruvian anchovy is showing a recovery, said a chief analyst from the Marine Ingredients organisation (IFFO).

2015 could see what is considered normal global supply levels of fishmeal at 5 million metric tons, and fish oil at 1m metric tons, said IFFO's chief analyst Enrico Bachis on March 5 at the tenth North Atlantic Seafood Forum (NASF) in Bergen, Norway.

Last year, fishmeal production was down 11.5% to 4.1m over 2013, while the fish oil output reached 843,000t, down 7.5% year-on-year.

Excluding the two main producing regions -- Peru and Scandinavia -- IFFO projects a slight production improvement this year in the rest of the world, driven by positive Atlantic menhaden quota expectations in the US and good prospects for African output.

While Denmark, Norway and Iceland awaits for quotas of mackerel and sandeel, other resources' quotas for fishmeal and fish oil production are already up by 10%, Bachis said.
 
"But, in the end, all is down to Peru, the biggest [fishmeal] producer in the world, capable of changing the landscape of the industry," he said.
 
Recent assessments from Peru's marine institute, Imarpe, are interpreted as as a positive sign for this year's anchovy fishing.
 
The institute's most recent research trip 'Eureka' found that juveniles made up almost 80% of the anchovy biomass.
 
"Anchovy grow a centimeter per month and we think the biomass will be ready for fishing between April and May, since it will reach normal size by the end of this quarter," Humberto Speziani, director of Peru's second largest fishmeal producer Tecnologica de Alimentos Somos (Tasa), told Undercurrent News earlier this month.
 
According to a recent report from Dutch bank Rabobank, by April, a biomass of 8m-10m metric tons is possible, which is within the normal range. This means recovery is expected before the first anchovy season, usually running from May to July.
 
In Peru's southern region, the anchovy season will be moved forward to the end of March due to improved biomass, the country's vice minister of fisheries, Juan Carlos Requeno, told the local media.
 
Although the quota for the season is subject to the upcoming report of Imarpe after the approval of exploratory fishing operations, an improved biomass of 607,000t of anchovy in the area is enough to start the fishing season, Requejo said.
 
Recent regulation changes allowing industrial fishing vessels to operate within five miles of the southern shore, instead of seven miles, is also positive news, since "anchovy tends to be very close to the shore," Bachis told attendees of the NASF Pelagic industry summit, from where Undercurrent reported live .

US, Africa to up output
 
Excluding Peru and Scandinavia, global production for this year is expected to improve slightly over 2014, Bachis said.
 
The US might push up the quota for Atlantic menhaden and, therefore, "good production in this part of the world" is expected, Bachir said.
 
Africa, for its part, is producing a "substantial" amount of fishmeal, participating also in the global trade.
 
"For [African] countries we are expecting a good season, so a slight increase," Bachir said.
 
Mexico, however, saw a 30% decrease in production in 2014 and "same difficulties" are expected for this year.
 
Steep sardine quota cuts in Chile will affect fishmeal production, Bachir said, although a quota increase could be announced this month.
 
China is expected to have similar production as 2014, a year that saw output down 10% year-on-year, to near 500,000t.
 
Lower volumes are linked to overfishing and to a new policy implemented by the Chinese government to improve the quality of fishmeal, Bachis said.
 
"[The Chinese government] forced the closure of fishmeal plants, specially the small and more polluting ones," he said.
 
Thailand, Vietnam and India have recently boosted their fishmeal production, and a similar output as 2014 is expected for 2015.